20+ years of FBI data – “Assault Rifles” pose little threat to public safety

Since 1995 (the year after the 1994-2004 Assault Weapons Ban), the FBI has maintained a very detailed list of how many people have died at the hands of assault weapons and/or rifles, which are merged into the same group. Therefore, we can make a solid comparison on what gun violence looks like.

In 2014, you are 67% less likely to be murdered by an assault weapon or rifle than you were in 1995.

 

As a total share of the responsibility of murders in America, rifles are half as likely to be used in 2014 (2.07%) as they were during the peak year during the AWB in 1997 (4.08%).

Averaging out all years of the Assault Weapons Ban (1995 – 2003), we find that Assault Weapons/Rifles were used in 3.29% of all murders in the US, including mass murders and other crimes.

In the 10 years following the sunset of the ban (2005 – 2014), we find that Assault Weapons/Rifles were used in 2.62% of all murders in the United States. Therefore, there was a sizable decrease in the frequency of deaths caused by Assault Weapons/Rifles.

The media on both sides will try to make different narratives about guns, violence, and what actions need to be taken. Both sides are, and have knee-jerk reactions to tragedies. What I fear is that laws will be created and borne out of feelings and emotions rather than solid, empirical evidence. As per the FBI, this is the data we have available, and it does not suggest in any way that another ban or restriction will have any meaningful effect on murder, mass murder, or violence in America.

I would suggest, then, that murder and violence in America has a deeper systemic issue that will not be solved by reactionary laws.

Spreadsheet source for data provided in article : https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1rMvH0wvt4qqmU86FZYgIQLMzUK-xWpTmYsp8IY6Cm-w/edit?usp=sharing

Date	Table	URL				Note
2010 – 2014:		https://www.fbi.gov/about-us/cjis/ucr/crime-in-the-u.s/2014/crime-in-the-u.s.-2014/tables/expanded-homicide-data/expanded_homicide_data_table_8_murder_victims_by_weapon_2010-2014.xls
2009:	Table 20	https://www.fbi.gov/about-us/cjis/ucr/crime-in-the-u.s/2009
2008:	Table 20	https://www.fbi.gov/about-us/cjis/ucr/crime-in-the-u.s/2008
2007:	Table 20	https://www.fbi.gov/about-us/cjis/ucr/crime-in-the-u.s/2007				State data from table 20 aggregated into a final tally for all states
2006:	Table 20	https://www.fbi.gov/about-us/cjis/ucr/crime-in-the-u.s/2006				State data from table 20 aggregated into a final tally for all states
2005:	Table 7	https://www.fbi.gov/about-us/cjis/ucr/crime-in-the-u.s/2005				Note: 2005 UCR Table 7 contains different values for murders and firearm usage for 2001-2005. As per table, 2,111 murders were commited with rifles, and 71,859 murders were committed in the aforementioned time span
2004:	Table 20	https://www.fbi.gov/about-us/cjis/ucr/crime-in-the-u.s/2004				State data from table 20 aggregated into a final tally for all states
2003:	Table 2.12	https://www.fbi.gov/about-us/cjis/ucr/crime-in-the-u.s/2003
2002:	Table 2.13	https://www.fbi.gov/about-us/cjis/ucr/crime-in-the-u.s/2002
2001:	Table 2.13	https://www.fbi.gov/about-us/cjis/ucr/crime-in-the-u.s/2001
2000:	Table 2.13	https://www.fbi.gov/about-us/cjis/ucr/crime-in-the-u.s/2000
1999:	Table 2.13	https://www.fbi.gov/about-us/cjis/ucr/crime-in-the-u.s/1999
1998:	Table 2.13	https://www.fbi.gov/about-us/cjis/ucr/crime-in-the-u.s/1998/98sec2.pdf
1997:	Table 2.13	https://www.fbi.gov/about-us/cjis/ucr/crime-in-the-u.s/1997/97sec2.pdf
1996:	Table 2.13	https://www.fbi.gov/about-us/cjis/ucr/crime-in-the-u.s/1996/96sec2.pdf
1995:	Table 2.13	https://www.fbi.gov/about-us/cjis/ucr/crime-in-the-u.s/1995/95sec2.pdf
Pre-1994 Murder Numbers		http://www.disastercenter.com/crime/uscrime.htm				These numbers do not entirely mesh with data obtained from the FBI UCR directly.
US Population:		http://www.multpl.com/united-states-population/table